For the first time in nearly two decades, China leads the U.S. in global leadership approval. Forty-four countries registered double-digit drops in confidence in American leadership between 2024 and 2025. Allies are hedging. Supply chains are restructuring. Foreign aid has been cut by more than half.

This isn’t a political story — it’s a capital allocation story.

The world isn’t abandoning the United States. It’s pricing in a new risk premium against it. The question for investors is whether their frameworks are keeping pace.

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